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Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary – March 2024

Belying the satirical aphorism, “Beware of the Ides of March”, the public fixed income and equity markets experienced a revival of positive correlations as both ended the month in positive territory. On the backdrop of staunch consumer spending, a relentlessly resilient labor market, an overall softening in supply-side constraints, S&P 500 companies’ solid fundamentals, and a U.S. economy that continues to expand at a pace that is above historical trend growth, market participants and investors alike have fostered an appetite for risk assets while concurrently dialing back expectations for rate cuts in 2024.

Q1 2024 Commentary and Investment Outlook

As the quarter came to a close, the Federal Reserve in their most recent FOMC meeting left interest rates unchanged and released new quarterly economic projections.  The projections focused on the economy (GDP), the unemployment rate, and prices (Personal Consumption Expenditures).

Economic Commentary – February 2024

​Following the January 31 FOMC decision to leave its overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50%, and more pointedly, non-dovish remarks from Fed officials throughout the course of the month, the interest rate futures market had become more aligned with December’s FOMC Summary of Economic Projections which outlined three rate cuts in 2024.

Economic Commentary – January 2024

2024 may be the year that will ultimately unveil whether the Federal Reserve has been able to orchestrate its much desired economic “soft-landing” after imposing 23 successive months of monetary policy restraint, as January saw the return of traditional negative correlations amongst risk assets.

Economic Commentary – December 2023

December saw the extension of positive correlations amongst risk assets and cash-yielding products as equity and fixed income markets finished the month (and year) in positive territory, highlighted by a pronounced cross-asset Santa Clause rally.

Q4 Commentary and Investment Outlook

FOMC members at the last meeting of 2023 agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance “for some time,” while affirming they were probably at the peak rate for the tightening cycle. 

Economic Commentary – November 2023

November 2023 commenced with the conclusion of the FOMC’s seventh policy meeting of the calendar year.

Economic Commentary – October 2023

​October 2023 will be principally hallmarked as a month with U.S. political disunity and geopolitical strife.

Quarterly Commentary – Q3 2023

As we enter the final quarter of 2023, a hawkish Federal Reserve will likely continue to keep yields at the highest levels in almost two decades. 

Economic Commentary – August 2023

Widely accepted and recognized as the month of the summer slowdown on Wall Street encompassing low trading volumes and a dearth of headline news, August held true to this presumption.

Economic Commentary – September 2023

For adherents to the investment ideology of the “September Swoon”, September 2023 provided validation of this renowned market phenomenon.

Economic Commentary – July 2023

In comparison to the preceding three months (Q2 2023) which saw varying, disparate, yet correlated financial market perturbations, July was a considerably placid month. Sustaining 2023’s overall macroeconomic theme, consumers continued to spend, the labor market remained resolute with the unemployment rate hovering around a 50-year low, and economic growth stood in expansionary mode.

Economic Commentary – June 2023

Continuing 2023’s trend of the rates market accurately assigning a static rate hike probability ahead of a pivotal Fed decision, the result was once again spot on.

Quarterly Commentary – Q2 2023

The quarter began with the second largest U.S. bank failure as regulators seized First Republic Bank and engineered a sale to JPMorgan.  

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