We opened December 2024’s commentary with the two-word sentence, “Divergent December.” While that description is quite germane in defining December 2025, we deemed that a more fitting characterization would be “Dubious December”, particularly as it pertained to monetary policy forward guidance. Before we discuss the Fed, and the policymakers’ discordant outlooks regarding the direction of monetary policy, it is significant to note that although U.S. equity performance was gen

The U.S. economy closed 2025 on a note of cautious optimism. Uncertainty regarding inflation, labor markets, and fiscal policy tempered expectations. The quarter was marked by a prolonged, 43-day government shutdown that spanned the entire month of October and the first 12 days of November, which delayed key data releases and injected volatility into markets. Despite these disruptions, the economy demonstrated resilience, supported by earlier fiscal stimulus and an eventual p